Taiwan election, U.S. wins, Taiwan Strait tensions rise
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy.”
Lai Ching-te from the governing Democratic Progressive Party won the 16th Taiwan’s presidential election on Wednesday.
US vs China proxy war
The election is being closely watched because it is being framed as a proxy war between the United States and China. The outcome of the election between the pro-US and pro-China candidates will have a major impact on China-Taiwan relations, US-China relations, and the global security and economic landscape.
In the run-up to the election, Beijing threatened that war could break out in the Taiwan Strait if the DPP came to power. On election day, Beijing continued its threats of force, deploying eight PLA military aircraft and six warships in the airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan.
However, the Taiwanese people voted to keep the anti-China, pro-U.S. Democratic Progressive Party in power for 12 consecutive years.
What’s Next for East Asia’s Security Geopolitics?
“We are faced with the reality that China is engaged in a military, diplomatic, and economic pressure campaign against Taiwan,” said Eli Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, at a U.S. House of Representatives hearing last September, “and the Chinese leadership has not yet dismissed the use of military force.”
The U.S. government has confirmed that China’s threat to Taiwan is real.
Moreover, the election results are likely to increase Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan. In particular, tensions in the Taiwan Strait are likely to continue to rise, and the possibility of conflict between the Chinese navy and the U.S. Navy is likely to increase.
What are the global economic implications?
Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor contract manufacturer. It is a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain. With the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power, rather than the Kuomintang, which has a negative stance on foreign investment, global semiconductor supply chain disruptions are expected to be minimal for some time.
